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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and longtime underperformers improving in unison. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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