Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
