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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.